The F1 world exploded on February 1 with the announcement of Lewis Hamilton’s move to Ferrari.
A move that the British driver had already flirted with on several occasions without hiding his desire to race for the Italian team, but always finally renewing his contracts with Mercedes – until now.
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It is arguably the most ambitious move of his career and one that he may now have doubts about whether he has made the right decision.
However, Mercedes’ performance in the new era of the 2022 regulations has not been as expected.
Hamilton has not been particularly comfortable with his cars over the past two years after an era of overwhelming dominance that Red Bull and Max Verstappen brought to an end in Abu Dhabi 2021.
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Despite finishing ahead of Ferrari by just three points in 2023, Mercedes’ trend in the second half of the season was not as upward as that of the Italians, who came close to overtaking them in the Constructors’ standings.
This was probably one of the main reasons why Hamilton finally decided to sign a contract with Ferrari.
With a worrying start to the year for Mercedes and Hamilton critical of the car and the team, it seemed that his decision had been an extremely wise one. As if Lewis was able to predict the future.
But all that has changed since this season’s Canadian GP where Mercedes has finally found the right development path after always being a step behind with these regulations due to erratic behaviour from their last cars.
Hamilton has now won two of the last three races and has been on the podium in four of the last five events on the calendar.
Hamilton has scored the most points in the last five races since Mercedes started fighting McLaren and Red Bull head to head.
From starting the season fighting with Aston Martin and far from the podium to being the most complete team – as a whole – on the grid; something that neither Hamilton nor probably Mercedes expected.
By now, Hamilton should be having some doubts about his decision and perhaps even regretting leaving his “family” to explore a new challenge with Ferrari.
But, more worryingly for Lewis, Ferrari has stagnated since Monaco.
After introducing the Imola upgrade package that was expected to be decisive in the Italian team’s Championship winning hopes, Ferrari has scored just two podium finishes, and with external events playing in their favour, not on their own merits.
One was Carlos Sainz’s in Austria after Lando Norris and Max Verstappen’s accident and Charles Leclerc’s in the last race at Spa after George Russell’s disqualification.
Without George Russell’s disqualification in Belgium for not reaching the FIA minimum weight by 1.5 kilograms, the gap between Ferrari and Mercedes would be even smaller.
Exactly, without the disqualification it would be 58 points when only six races ago the gap was 128 points. And even with that DSQ, Mercedes still earned more points than Ferrari in Belgium with Lewis Hamilton’s win alone.
The only great hope is that in terms of qualifying pace both Mercedes and Ferrari are very close.
Mercedes has, of course, closed the gap to the Italian team’s one lap pace since Canada. Taking Max Verstappen as a reference for having been the pole sitter of the first seven races of the year, we can appreciate this trend.
In terms of race pace, Mercedes has proven to be much more solid than Ferrari lately.
On circuits with very different characteristics and with changing track conditions, the Brackley team is much more consistent than the Italians, who have not been able to find the sweet spot of the SF24 yet.
That inconsistency has also carried over to the garage with Charles Leclerc, who since winning in Monaco has been rather lacklustre until just a couple of races ago.
Lewis Hamilton’s Ferrari team-mate for F1 2025 remains third in the Drivers’ World Championship, but after a negative run for both the team and himself he sees this position at risk.
Since his victory in Monaco, Hamilton has cut Leclerc by an average of 11 points per race.
A difference too remarkable that perfectly reflects the reality: a comfortable Hamilton with a competitive car and an uncomfortable Leclerc with an inconsistent car that right now is not in a position to fight with McLaren, Mercedes and Red Bull.
Mercedes’ resurgence has caught everyone by surprise. Lewis Hamilton the most, who after seeing a poor start to the season from Mercedes and a Ferrari capable of fighting with Red Bull in race pace would be more than happy with his decision.
But in a matter of five races, the story is now very different.
It is true that the performance gap between Ferrari and Mercedes is not abysmal.
A successful update package could put the Maranello-based team back in contention, but budgets for F1 2024 are increasingly limited and the big Imola update did not give Ferrari the expected results.
With less than half a season to go, and with an F1 2025 season of continuity in terms of the regulations, Mercedes seems to be in a very favourable position to finish this year in a high place and have a great base car to fight for the championship in 2025.
What will Lewis think after seeing all this data and having to say goodbye to the team that has allowed him to break all the records in years past?